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No green shoots of recovery in jobless figures 17/06/09
 

Official labour market figures published today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show a further steep rise in UK unemployment in the February-April quarter.

John Philpott, Chief Economist at the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) described the figures as ‘grim but not unexpected’.

He added that figures for the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (the claimant count) were ‘amazingly good given what we know about the state of the jobs market, though too puzzling to yet be seen as a genuine ‘green shoot’.

With today’s ONS figures covering the first full year since the labour market downturn started in 2008, Dr Philpott today particularly highlights:

· Total employment down 0.4 million

· Private sector employment down 0.7 million

· Public sector employment up 0.25 million (5%)

· Biggest impact of job losses hitting men and young people, when compared to women and the over 50s respectively

· Impact on manufacturing would have been greater without efforts by employers to implement alternatives to redundancy.

Dr Philpott, analysing today’s figures, said: “Anyone looking for green shoots of recovery in today’s jobs figures will have little to grasp at. The recorded quarterly fall in employment and rise in unemployment still ranks amongst the worst seen in the post-war era. Vacancies are drying up at a rapid rate and redundancies go on rising. The grim news thus continues, though this is not unexpected given the dire state of the economy at the turn of the year."

He added that there is little in today’s figures to suggest that unemployment will not rise above 3 million next year.

"The one glimmer of hope is the claimant unemployment count. Not only is the count increasing much more slowly than might be expected but remarkably the number of people flowing onto the count actually fell in May.

"If indicative of underlying economic factors – rather than the result of the way in which benefits are administered or a reduced propensity for unemployed people to sign on at Jobcentres - these claimant figures are amazingly good given what we know about the state of the jobs market, though too puzzling to yet be seen as a genuine ‘green shoot’."

Commenting on the figures, Liberal Democrat shadow work and pensions secretary, Steve Webb, commented: "Labour's pledge to end high unemployment is in tatters. Most worrying is the rise in the number of people who have been out of work for over six months or even a year.

"We know from the last recession that the longer people have been out of work, the harder they find it to get another job. It's too late to put someone on a special scheme when they have been unemployed for a year. Jobcentres need to be much more supportive from day one instead of sending people away to go and look for jobs on the internet."

 
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