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While global equity markets have slightly improved this
year a full recovery of the markets and the economy is not
expected any time soon, so says John Hawksworth, head of
macroeconomics at PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Since September 15, 2008 the Dow Jones Global Titans 50
fell 21.10%, while year-to-date the index is up 0.09% through
June 15, 2009.
John Hawksworth, head of macroeconomics at PricewaterhouseCoopers
said: "Globalisation was beneficial for both developed
and especially emerging market economies over the decade
to 2006.
"But the last two years have shown that globalisation
also has a dark side as it allowed the build-up of large
global trade imbalances and corresponding capital flows
from the East that help to inflate unsustainable credit
and housing market bubbles in the West. Once the crisis
hit in the U.S. housing market initially, globalization
of financial markets also meant that the credit crunch virus
spread very rapidly around the world.
“Looking ahead, we expect a fall of around 2.5% in
world GDP in 2009 but then a modest recovery to global growth
of around 1% in 2010, led by China and India. I am more
cautious about the prospects for Europe, including the euro
zone countries for which we project a fall in GDP of more
than 4% in 2009 followed by continued negative GDP growth
of around -0.5% in 2010.
"In the longer term, the need to deal with rapidly
increasing public debt will weigh down on the speed of economic
recovery in the U.S., the U.K. and other high deficit countries
and could also dampen the return on government bonds relative
to equities over the next few years.”
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