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As an investment debate surrounding whether investors should
continue to invest in UK government bonds continues apace,
one manager believes there are still attractive opportunities
for investors in government bonds in emerging markets.
Mark Pearce, fixed income and alternatives investment specialist
at Threadneedle, believes more traditional economic and
political policies being employed by emerging market governments
and central banks have brought stability to these markets
helping to reduce the possibility of default when compared
to the environment ten years ago.
Pearce comments: "We believe there are still great
opportunities to invest in government bonds from emerging
markets. Emerging market economies have improved dramatically
over the past decade, with many countries holding foreign
reserves well in excess of their external debt.
"More traditional economic and political policies
by central banks and governments have brought stability
to such markets, which in turn have significantly reduced
the possibility of default. Indeed, we believe that less
than 5% of emerging market sovereign issuers are at any
risk of default in the near term.
"However, this does not apply to the emerging corporate
bond market, which we feel is exposed to significant default
risk and ongoing problems in terms of liquidity.
"Venezuela, Brazil and Russia are countries we favour
and consider to be strong creditors. This means they have
low levels of debt relative to reserves and are in a good
position to meet all short term debt obligations. We are
also keen on the dollar denominated debt of Mexico which
has underperformed in recent months.
"Furthermore, large issuers such as Hungary, Turkey
and Russia are still cutting interest rates, which provide
significant upside for bond investors at a time when some
segments of the market are questioning whether recent strength
has limited the return potential of this asset class."
He notes however, that investors who want exposure to emerging
market debt should choose their fund carefully.
"Given the problems faced by investors during 2008,
liquidity and transparency are the most important things
an investor should be looking for in an emerging market
debt fund. Also the skills necessary to manage local currency
bonds are different to those necessary to manage traditional
external / dollar denominated bonds."
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