Media
attention towards the potential threat of avian influenza
has proved as migratory as many birds. The discovery of a
dead swan close to home triggers alarmist reports on an imminent
pandemic, followed by periods of silence when the issue disappears
from the headlines.
Although the Department of Health advises that the risk of
travellers becoming infected with avian flu is low, the World
Health Organisation warns that further outbreaks could trigger
a human flu pandemic.
The deadly H5N1 virus is closely related to those that cause
flu in humans and, although so far mostly restricted to birds,
can be passed on to humans. It appears that avian flu has
been present among wild birds, poultry farms and live markets
for centuries without posing any serious threat. H5N1 became
a serious concern at the end of 2003, when an outbreak was
reported in South East Asia and spread to various countries,
with Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Cambodia, China and Turkey
suffering human fatalities.
To date, transmission appears to have occurred where people
have been in close contact with poultry and other birds. Charities
with overseas operations have therefore ignored the lurid
headlines and issued “common sense” guidelines
to those travelling in affected countries, such as avoiding
live animal markets and poultry farms and exercising caution
in handling or eating dishes containing poultry, duck or eggs.
However, few charities are likely to have a business continuity
plan in place should the H5N1 virus trigger a pandemic.
Continuity planning
Broker and risk management consultancy Aon Ltd – one
of several broking and risk management groups to have developed
a business continuity review service – marked its
launch in March with a survey: Pandemic Influenza: Managing
the Risks of an Invisible Threat.
Aon found that, even in the private sector, fewer than 60
per cent of the firms surveyed had measures in place to
respond to an avian flu pandemic. Alex Hindson, associate
director for the group’s IRMG risk consultancy unit,
says only the biggest charities are likely to have any form
of business continuity process in place. These will have
been developed for situations such as operating in regions
affected by war or disease.
The first step for those still unprepared is to ensure their
key operations can be maintained if disaster strikes, by
identifying the key processes and functions and who the
key people are. The second is to calculate whether the loss
of a key function, such as computer services, can be coped
with for a short while. “For a financial institution,
the service needs to be restored immediately, but a charity
can perhaps live without it a little longer,” he observes.
“If a pandemic hits, office administrative functions
can possibly be run from home and linked by IT – people
will be reluctant to move around anyway. But if the charity
has an activity such as running a hostel, it will need to
consider laying on buses and overnight accommodation for
its nurses and care workers.”
Unlike such threats to continuity as bomb attacks or fire,
a pandemic would act as a steady erosion of activity over
time, observes Malcolm Cornish, business development manager of
Marsh Ltd’s risk consulting practice. For example,
a charity might see a quarter of its staff affected, but
the knock-on effect would be magnified with other employees occupied
with looking after a sick relative or simply opting to stay
off work.
Cornish says last July’s bomb attacks in London demonstrated
the significant contribution made by non-profit organisations in
dealing with an emergency. “The input of the voluntary
services was greater than the authorities anticipated. They
hadn’t been greatly involved in the preparations for
such an event and were therefore hampered by the
lack of information from the government and local authorities.
In future, there needs to be closer involvement.”
Peter Heap, a consultant for ARK Risk Consulting, adds that
an assessment should also consider the potential impact
of a pandemic on both its revenue and its insurance policies.
While coverage is, at present, unlikely to exclude medical
treatment for employees exposed to avian flu, it won’t
extend to loss of business if the charity is forced to close
down. Insurers don’t regard pandemics as a traditional
business continuity risk, as they do not impact a single
physical location over a finite time.
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Root causes
Christian Aid is among the charities which regard the risk
to staff overseas as remaining low, provided they take precautions.
However, it warns that if avian flu were to become pandemic,
it might have to restrict the ability of field staff in
affected countries, instructing them to return either to
the UK or their home country. Local offices could also be
closed down.
The charity’s security manager, Kiruja Micheni, says
discussions are underway to develop a contingency plan,
with initiatives coming from risk management companies and
businesses in the private sector. He admits that much remains
unknown about how the virus could mutate, although charities
are participants in a bird flu task force made up of scientists
and conservationists from nine international organisations,
including four UN bodies.
The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds has worked
with the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural
Affairs (DEFRA) in locating dead birds and submitting them
for analysis, while a number of voluntary organisations
have also played a significant role in pinning down the
causes of avian flu.
Dr. Richard Thomas, of BirdLife International, says previous
outbreaks attracted little publicity as they were contained
and posed a minimal risk to humans. It transpires that the
first recorded case of H5N1 was in Scotland in 1959, while
a turkey farm in England suffered an outbreak in 1991.
BirdLife cites the three major potential routes for a worldwide
epidemic as the movement of infected poultry and poultry
products, the movement of caged wild birds in trade and
the movements of wild birds.
The charity believes the intensive farming practices within
the poultry trade and resulting infection to be the main
culprit. “It’s incredibly hard to thoroughly
clean the cages used to transport poultry and the virus
can easily be passed on through infected faeces,”
observes Dr Thomas.
BirdLife is active in efforts to prevent the mass culling
of wild birds, which have been reported in areas such as
Russia, as it believes they have been the victims of H5N1
but not the cause.
“The virus is only moderately pathogenic among wild
birds, but becomes much more severe when you have poultry
in cramped conditions,” says Thomas. “Charities
are fighting the case for backyard poultry producers.”
They are also promoting the cause of preserving diversity
in farming, he adds. “We’ve made ourselves reliant
on a very limited number of species of chicken; something
which also applies to crops such as rice. If any are affected
by virus, the consequences are disastrous.”
FARM-Africa, which works to reduce poverty with smallholder
farmers and herders to promote natural resource management,
is keenly aware that many of the continent’s most
vulnerable communities rely heavily on poultry farming.
“Poultry is incredibly important to help lift people
out of poverty, providing them with much needed protein
and an income,” says its chief executive, Dr Christie
Peacock. “So FARM-Africa has been making detection
and monitoring of this virus a big priority.” The
charity’s animal health workers throughout East Africa
have been frontline scouts against avian flu since the beginning
of the year, alerting the authorities to any early signs
of the virus.
Dr Peacock, who is also a professional animal scientist,
has spent the last 26 years in the field in Africa engaged
in research and development with livestock keepers and is
familiar with many of the issues confronting farmers.
Last autumn, she attended the Conference of Ministers Responsible
for Animal Resources in Kigali, Rwanda, where Africa’s
senior ministers and officials met to discuss and prepare
for avian flu. “Bird flu is a serious disease both
from the economic and human health perspective and African
leaders have been taking this very seriously for quite some
time. It is often first seen in large commercial flocks
where sick and dead birds are easily noticed,” says
Dr Peacock. “However, village poultry are particularly
at risk as they mix with wild birds
that may carry the virus. Because of this, a great deal
of work to educate people about the virus has been undertaken,
and FARM-Africa’s local teams have played an active
role in this.”
Online Information on Pandemic Flu
A number of governmental and other bodies offer free
advice online for both commercial and non-profit organisations
on planning for pandemic flu.
They include risk consultancy firm Link Associates, which has
an 18-page document as a free download on its website www.linkassociates.com
Prepared by business continuity practitioner Jamie Jameson,
the document considers the implications of a pandemic for
a wide range of sectors and the actions that would need
to be addressed. Issues highlighted include planning
for widespread absenteeism, putting effective employee management
strategies in place, travel policy and insurance considerations
and issues affecting key partners and critical supply chains. The
document also provides a list of other relevant
websites.
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